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Mexico’s most-wanted cartel boss, “El Mencho,” was killed during a security operation on Sunday, and cartel gunmen responded within hours by torching vehicles, blocking highways, and attacking buildings across multiple states in a sweeping show of force. Mexico killed the man it had spent years chasing, and the country immediately learned what that victory cost. Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes—“El Mencho,” the longtime head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel—died after his capture during a government operation in Jalisco, according to official accounts. Within hours, Mexico was set alight in a literal, orchestrated reply: vehicles burning across highways, roads blocked by flaming barricades, and attacks on banks, supermarkets, and public infrastructure. The message was not subtle. The cartel was announcing that even in death, its leader could still move the nation’s pulse. What unfolded next looked less like a criminal tantrum than like a demonstration of parallel sovereignty. In at least 13 states, armed groups reportedly ignited chaos quickly and widely enough to empty streets, halt transit, divert flights, cancel events, and force cities into shelter mode. Jalisco, the cartel’s birthplace and base, became the epicenter—Guadalajara sliding into a tense quiet, Puerto Vallarta warned to keep visitors indoors, and panic rippling even through the machinery of travel and commerce. This is how modern cartel power advertises itself: not through a manifesto, but through the ability to interrupt normal life at scale and on command. The state, for its part, framed the killing as a major win in a renewed offensive against organized crime and a signal to Washington at a delicate moment. The operation was described as Mexican-led with U.S. intelligence support—an important detail in a bilateral relationship increasingly shaped by American impatience, threats of unilateral action, and Mexico’s insistence on sovereignty. President Claudia Sheinbaum urged calm and emphasized coordination with state governments, even as the country’s week was already being rewritten—classes canceled, routes suspended, ports disrupted, and foreign governments issuing warnings to their citizens. A successful raid became, instantly, a national stress test. And then comes the darker arithmetic of “decapitation” strategy. Killing a cartel boss can weaken a criminal empire—or it can fracture it into competing organs, each eager to prove dominance by escalating violence. The immediate backlash is meant to intimidate the state into caution, to remind officials that enforcement has a price, and to reassure foot soldiers and partners that the organization remains alive. But the longer danger is what follows the spectacle: succession battles, splinter groups, retaliatory killings, and the slow normalization of emergency as routine. In Mexico, the question after a kingpin falls is rarely “Is the threat over?” It is “How many new threats will fill the vacuum?” For ordinary people, this episode is an indictment of the country’s civic bargain. A government can achieve a tactical triumph, yet citizens still find themselves trapped behind burning roadblocks while armed men decide who moves and who doesn’t. Families driving to breakfast become collateral, airports become rumor engines, and cities learn—again—that the line between public security and public theater is painfully thin. The cartel’s violence is designed to do more than kill; it is designed to govern behavior, to shrink public life, and to make fear the most reliable authority on the street. If Mexico’s leadership wants this moment to be more than a headline, the real fight begins after the smoke clears: not simply the pursuit of the next boss, but the harder project of preventing criminal organizations from operating as the country’s shadow infrastructure. Otherwise, the state will keep winning operations while losing the lived experience of safety—an endless cycle where every “major victory” is followed by a national reminder that power in Mexico is still contested, and the civilians are the terrain.
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Continuing Conflicts
Reports have emerged (most recently through theafricareport and the Saldhig Institute), that ties between Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and the Houthis in Yemen have deepened, and that the two groups have conducted training and intelligence exchanges, weapons transfers, and have growing financial links. While Yemen has been a “marketplace” for elicit weapons, the deepening trust between the two groups could lead to the Houthis (or potentially even state actors in Iran) tranferring more advanced weaponry to Al-Shabaab. Observers were most concerned about the potential transfer of military-grade grones or missile systems, which could worsen the ongoing and longstanding conflict in Somalia. Al-Shabaab operatives have reportedly already travelled to Yemen for training in explosives and drone operations, and hawala networks accross Yemen, Djibouti, and Oman have been identified. This relationship is groundbreaking as it transcends the deeply dived sectarian nature of Islamist terrorist groups. It is exceedingly uncommon for Shia and Sunni terrorist groups to cooperate at such a high level. It appears that the relationship is also complicated, especially given that Al-Shabaab maintains longstanding ties to Al-Qaeda (Arabian Peninsula branch), which has continued to opperate in Yemen, and previously fought against the Houthis. However, these burgeoning ties add yet another complexity to the political and security environment in both the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions, and demonstrate the regional shift towards pragmatic and value-drived cooperation over more rigid historical ideological commitments. As the dispute between the UAE and Saudi Arabia continues to play out, the Red Sea Region remains a battleground for both countries and their strateigic interests. Since the fallout in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has pursued much closer security agreements with both Somalia and Egypt, while officials in Somaliland have claimed that the UAE helped them become recognised by Israel.
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Europe
A pair of bombs in Lviv’s Old Town killed a 23-year-old policewoman and wounded dozens more on Sunday, in what Ukrainian officials described as a deliberate “trap” for responding officers and an act of terror likely ordered from Russia. The first device, hidden in a waste bin, detonated after police arrived to investigate a reported break-in; a second explosion followed as backup units reached the scene, causing most of the injuries. A 33-year-old woman from the Rivne region has been detained, and Ukraine’s security service says the investigation is now focused on identifying any accomplices. The victim, Viktoria Shpylka, had only recently begun her career, joining the police at the start of the full-scale invasion and marrying a fellow officer last autumn. The tribute issued by Lviv police described her as “sensitive, bright and sincere,” someone who could steady colleagues on difficult days, language that reads less like ceremony than like a portrait of a young life swallowed by a war that increasingly reaches behind front lines. Up to 25 people were injured, with multiple officers reported in serious condition, underscoring the point of the attack: to turn the routine act of response into a killing ground. Ukraine’s interior minister said there was “every reason” to believe the bombing was carried out on Russian orders, placing it within a broader pattern Kyiv has long warned about: Moscow’s alleged recruitment of “disposable agents” inside Ukraine via messaging platforms, often paid in cryptocurrency, then abandoned once the operation is completed. Ukrainian authorities say this model turns civilians into expendable instruments, people recruited at a distance, given a task, and left to be arrested or killed when the consequences arrive. The state can argue coordination without always being able to prove direct command, which is precisely what makes the method attractive: violence with plausible distance. The attack also sits inside a wider European backdrop in which Russia is accused of expanding sabotage beyond conventional intelligence pipelines. As traditional networks have been disrupted by expulsions and sanctions, Western reporting and Ukrainian officials have increasingly pointed to looser, deniable structures, using intermediaries, former operatives, and recruited locals to target infrastructure, sow panic, and force governments into defensive postures. The goal is not merely physical damage, but institutional exhaustion: to make security services chase shadows while society absorbs a steady drip of fear. Hours after the Lviv bombing, Russian missiles and drones struck districts around Kyiv, killing at least one person and trapping residents in rubble, while strikes in the south reportedly hit energy infrastructure in Odesa, sparking major fires.
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Asia
President Sadyr Japarov has moved to sideline Kamchybek Tashiyev, the security chief who, for five years, functioned as co-ruler, enforcer, and political shield, purging allies and tightening control while Tashiyev was reportedly abroad for medical treatment. The question now is not whether Kyrgyzstan is becoming more authoritarian; it is what kind of authoritarianism is being assembled, and whether the man pushed out of the palace corridor is truly gone, or merely regrouping. For years, Japarov’s power rested on a division of labor that is common in fragile autocracies: one leader cultivates the image of national renewal, the other does the state’s harsh work. Tashiyev, as head of the GKNB security apparatus, reportedly dismantled opposition networks, pressured independent journalism, moved against tycoons, and broke up criminal structures, compressing the political field until the regime faced fewer organized threats. In return, he was allowed to build an institution inside the state, expanding budgets, absorbing mandates, and projecting a persona, tough, theatrical, and untouchable, that made him both feared and politically indispensable. Japarov benefited from this arrangement the way many rulers do: repression produced enemies, but the hatred stuck to the enforcer, not the beneficiary. The purge suggests that this division of labor has run its course. Japarov appears to be preparing for re-election by removing the only figure with a comparable coercive base and popular security aura, clearing the terrain of anyone who might be read as loyal to the “People’s General.” Arrests and corruption cases against security-linked figures may be less about clean governance than about disarming an alternative network, cutting the arteries that could supply a rival bid, or even a rival veto, as the election calendar tightens. When a leader reaches for personalist rule, “anti-corruption” often becomes a convenient solvent: it dissolves factions while sounding like reform. Yet Kyrgyz politics has a memory, and purges rarely end stories, they change their genre. Tashiyev’s removal may look neat on paper, but it leaves behind a constituency of resentments inside the elite: officials who rose under his protection, beneficiaries of his institutional empire, and those who fear that Japarov’s consolidation will now require new scapegoats. Even if Tashiyev himself stays quiet, the system has already been trained to think in factions, and factions do not disappear; they wait. In a state where loyalty is transactional and power is personalized, “retirement” is rarely final. It is usually conditional. The regime’s problem is that it has built its security legitimacy on a man it can no longer fully control. Tashiyev’s brand, aggressive, performative, willing to humiliate officials, was not a bureaucratic style; it was a political identity. If he returns, healthy and embittered, he doesn’t need an ideology to become a threat. He needs only a moment of perceived weakness, a crisis, a disputed election, or a mismanaged crackdown that fractures confidence in Japarov’s competence. In such moments, the enforcer can reappear not as a villain, but as an “alternative,” the very word authoritarian systems fear most.
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From a prison outside Tunis, Rached Ghannouchi has tried to reclaim the language the Tunisian state now treats as subversive: democracy, rule of law, and the peaceful transfer of power. In a message addressed to Ennahda supporters from Mornaguia Prison, the movement’s leader and former parliament speaker argued that countries are not stabilized by repression but built through justice, consultation, and respect for the people’s will. It is a familiar plea, measured, principled, intentionally nonviolent, and in today’s Tunisia, that restraint is precisely what makes it politically threatening. Ghannouchi’s statement was not framed as a partisan rallying cry so much as a warning about what regimes become when they rely on punishment as a substitute for consent. He cast democracy as a mechanism that allows power to change hands without bloodshed and claimed it is compatible with Islamic principles designed to prevent tyranny and preserve human dignity. In other words, he offered a double rebuttal: to the state’s narrative that order requires exceptional measures, and to the insinuation that Islamist politics is inherently incompatible with pluralism. His insistence that “loyalty” should be directed to justice rather than individuals reads like an attempt to inoculate his followers against personality cults, an indirect critique of the political system Tunisia has been drifting toward. The message arrives in the shadow of a harsher judicial reality. Earlier this month, an appeals court increased Ghannouchi’s sentence to 20 years on charges tied to conspiring against state security, up from 14 years. He has been detained since April 2023, and the authorities insist the prosecutions are strictly criminal and free of political interference. But critics argue these cases are part of a broader campaign to neutralize opponents following President Kais Saied’s July 2021 power grab, exceptional measures Saied says were necessary to protect the state and restore order, and which opponents describe as the architecture of democratic rollback. This is the core Tunisian dilemma in miniature: a country that once symbolized the Arab world’s most credible democratic opening now litigating politics through security courts and long sentences. Ghannouchi’s words point to the hazard of a state that equates dissent with sabotage. Saied’s project depends on the idea that pluralism is disorder and that repression is a form of national hygiene. Ghannouchi’s counter-argument is that repression is not stability but rot, slow, cumulative, and eventually irreversible. /
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From the mountains and camps of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, Iran’s Kurdish opposition has been trying to turn exile into leverage. Five Kurdish-Iranian factions have just announced a new coalition aimed explicitly at overthrowing the Islamic Republic and pursuing Kurdish self-determination, an unusually direct political statement from groups long treated by Tehran as both a security problem and a symbolic threat. The announcement is timed to a moment when Iran’s internal order looks less permanent than it has in years, and when diaspora politics have been pulling more weight internationally. The coalition, calling itself the Coalition of Political Forces in Iran Kurdistan, brings together organizations with different histories and constituencies, including the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), and PJAK. Their joint message is framed as a claim of relevance: the regime, they argue, has lost legitimacy but remains in power, and Kurdish parties intend to “assert” themselves within the country’s upheaval rather than watch events from the sidelines. They cast their project as both national and Kurdish, supporting the wider protest movement while insisting that any post-Islamic Republic future must confront the question of Kurdish political rights. This matters because Kurdish politics, inside and outside Iran, rarely stay contained. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq has long served as a refuge and home base for Kurdish-Iranian factions, an arrangement that has repeatedly invited Iranian cross-border strikes and made Kurdish exile communities vulnerable to regional bargaining. Tehran has justified past attacks by accusing these groups of stoking unrest, and the memory of Mahsa Amini’s death in custody in 2022, followed by deadly Iranian strikes on exiled militants, still hangs over the landscape. In this context, even a “political coalition” is read through the language of force: what it declares, what it might mobilize, and what retaliation it could provoke. The Kurdish regional authorities’ response was predictably cautious. Iraq’s Kurdistan Region has its own tightrope to walk, hosting Iranian Kurdish factions while insisting it will not allow its territory to be used against neighboring states. That statement is not just diplomacy; it is an admission of vulnerability. When borders are porous and militias are mobile, the distinction between political organization and security threat can be erased by a single drone strike, a single roadside bomb, or a single claim, falsified or not, about who is “instigating” what. The coalition’s emphasis on coordination with civil society and opposition groups across Iran is also revealing. Kurdish movements have often been isolated by Tehran’s playbook of fragmentation: ethnic minorities treated as separatists, protesters treated as foreign agents, and alliances treated as treason. By publicly tying themselves to nationwide demonstrations, especially after recent unrest sparked by economic hardship and met with a lethal crackdown, the Kurdish factions are trying to make two claims at once: that Kurdish demands are not a side issue, and that Kurdish organization can be a vehicle rather than a veto for broader change. Still, the deeper tension remains unresolved: the gap between the language of liberation and the mechanics of power. These groups are described as mostly armed and often socialist in orientation, yet they have largely refrained from armed activity in recent years, operating instead as exiled political actors. If protests inside Iran intensify, they may be pulled toward a more operational role, or used as a pretext for Tehran to justify escalation across the border. Either way, the Kurdish question becomes a pressure point in a country already straining under sanctions, factional conflict, and the regime’s reliance on coercion to survive. Kurdish self-determination is a phrase with moral force and geopolitical consequences. Kurds are among the world’s largest stateless peoples, and in Iran they constitute a major non-Persian minority with a long history of repression and resistance. A coalition that openly calls for the regime’s overthrow is not just a declaration of intent; it is an invitation to confrontation, between Kurdish parties and Tehran, between Iraqi Kurdish authorities and their neighbors, and potentially between competing visions of what a post-Islamic Republic Iran would even mean. In moments of upheaval, exile politics can become destiny, or become a convenient target. The tragedy is that both outcomes are plausible at the same time.
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Americas
In today’s Cuba, scarcity has been reorganized into a hierarchy. The island’s crisis is no longer experienced as a shared deprivation, but as a split-screen reality: in one frame, steaks, imported groceries, rooftop restaurants lit by candles, and new hybrid vehicles; in the other, ration lines, blackouts, and people combing trash for anything that can be exchanged for cash. The old promise of egalitarian hardship has curdled into something more politically corrosive, inequality that is not only pervasive, but unmistakably visible. This new stratification is being driven by the growth of a legalized private sector that the state has learned to tolerate because the alternative is collapse. After small and medium-sized enterprises were authorized in 2021, the number of registered businesses surged, and informal ingenuity hardened into an economy of storefront stalls, living-room kiosks, and street markets selling what state distribution cannot reliably provide. For many families, these businesses have become less a sign of liberalization than a substitute for a failing public supply system: the private sector is portrayed as the channel through which food still arrives, often imported and often priced in ways that only the currency-connected can pay. But the private economy’s lifeline is also its cruelty. Prices in these shops are free-market in everything but name, and they land hardest on those trapped in state salaries and pensions. Basic staples, like sugar, flour, and eggs, are described as costing sums that can swallow days or weeks of income. The result is a familiar authoritarian pattern: survival is not allocated by rights, but by access, access to dollars, remittances, overseas relatives, or private-sector wages. Those who can convert foreign currency thrive; those who cannot are left to calculate hunger against rent, darkness against transportation, medicine against food. There is now a pyramid of currencies and purchasing power, where electronic peso transfers used in the state sector sit at the bottom, weakened further by shortages of cash that force people to queue simply to withdraw their own wages. Above that sit semi-convertible instruments and, higher still, actual dollars, especially dollars held abroad that can pay for imports. The black-market exchange rate becomes the unofficial truth of daily life, widening the gap between those who live inside the official economy and those who operate in the shadow system that actually functions. External pressure intensifies the sense of emergency, and the crisis is framed as deepening under renewed U.S. efforts to squeeze Havana, particularly through tighter constraints and a push to choke off oil supplies. Fuel shortages ripple outward into everything: longer lines, higher prices, and workarounds that again belong mostly to the affluent, hybrid cars, electric scooters, and home solar panels. Even mobility becomes a class privilege: the ability to move through the city without waiting a day for gasoline is treated as another marker of the new Cuban social order. Meanwhile, the government’s posture toward the private sector appears deeply ambivalent, dependent yet resentful. The state is described as periodically blaming entrepreneurs for inflation or “speculation,” while simultaneously tightening controls that make business harder: limiting company size, forcing transactions into local currency, and channeling imports through state intermediaries. The message this sends is not stability but conditional permission, an economy allowed to exist as a “necessary evil,” never secure enough to build long-term confidence, and always vulnerable to sudden rule changes. The most haunting contrast in the piece is not rhetorical but physical: delicatessens offering luxury imports at discreet addresses while, a few blocks away, people scavenge trash for recyclable bottles to sell for a few pesos each. In the 1990s, hardship after the Soviet collapse was brutal but broadly shared; now deprivation has been sorted into separate worlds, and the separation itself becomes the grievance. When a system can no longer provide, it does something subtler: it allows some to buy their way out, then calls the resulting inequality an unfortunate side effect rather than a political choice. In that sense, Cuba’s crisis is not only an economic emergency but a moral rearrangement. The state’s retreat has not produced freedom so much as a market in survival, where the privileged can purchase normal life while everyone else inherits the consequences of failed governance. The danger for the regime is not merely that people are hungry or exhausted, but that they are hungry and can see exactly who is not.
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