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Georgia’s ruling party is trying to make “illegitimacy” itself a prosecutable idea, turning a political dispute over the 2024 election into a criminal code problem, and daring critics to keep saying what they’ve been saying out loud. On paper, the new draft provision, a proposed Article 316¹, branded as “Extremism against the Constitutional Order of Georgia” reads like a public-order measure. In practice, it is a legitimacy trap. It would punish “systematic and public” calls for mass lawbreaking or disobedience, and it would also criminalize repeated public attempts to “present oneself or another person as a Georgian authority,” or other systematic actions aimed at establishing the perception that constitutional bodies are illegitimate. The bill’s genius, from the state’s perspective, is that it doesn’t have to define “illegitimacy” in any precise way. It only needs prosecutors and judges willing to treat sustained political messaging as a public threat. Individuals could face fines, 400–600 hours of community service, or up to three years in prison. Legal entities could face fines and even liquidation. And the ruling party is trying to add a second mechanism on top: a new aggravating “motive of non-recognition,” which would tack an extra year onto sentences when prosecutors argue that a crime was committed out of refusal to recognize the constitutional order. That is how speech becomes infrastructure: once “motive” is criminalized, the state can punish not only what you did, but the story it claims you were trying to tell. This is not emerging in a vacuum. Georgian Dream is legislating in the shadow of a legitimacy crisis it insists does not exist. After the disputed 2024 parliamentary elections, many opponents and critics have refused to treat the current government as a lawful authority. In Georgian political language, that refusal shows up everywhere, from calling the cabinet “illegitimate” to describing it as “Ivanishvili’s government,” to the former president Salome Zourabichvili’s refusal to recognize the new president chosen by a parliament born of contested elections. Georgian Dream’s answer is not to win the argument; it is to narrow the space in which the argument can be made. Supporters of the bill insist they will draw a “clear line” between free expression and criminal conduct: one person saying something once, they claim, won’t qualify. But the bill is written to make that line discretionary, not clear. “Systematic,” “public,” “establishing a perception,” “harm Georgia’s interests,” and “real threat of such harm” are all phrases that can be stretched until they fit the target. If you are a journalist who repeatedly describes institutions as captured, is that “systematic action”? If you’re a civil society group publishing regular statements that the government lacks legitimacy, is that “establishing a perception”? If you’re an opposition figure urging people to treat parliament as unlawful and boycott its processes, is that “mass disobedience”? The draft is built so that the state can answer yes when it wants to. The ruling party is also trying to give this maneuver international cover. Its representatives have pointed to Germany’s crackdown on a fringe movement that created parallel governing structures, implying this is standard democratic self-defense. Critics note the mismatch: the German case involved a cult-like rejection of the state itself; Georgia is criminalizing a political judgment about whether a specific government derived from contested elections can be trusted or recognized. That comparison isn’t an argument. It’s a costume. What this law would do, even if it’s rarely used at full force, is produce a climate. The threat is the point. Once the criminal code is available, editors self-censor. NGOs rephrase. activists second-guess. The government doesn’t need to imprison thousands; it only needs a few high-profile cases, and a vague statute that makes everyone else do the math in advance. Georgia’s leadership has described its post-2024 restrictions as necessary to fight “external influence.” But this provision isn’t about foreign powers; it’s about domestic consent. It is an attempt to legislate recognition, to make the state’s version of legitimacy the only safe language in public life. A government confident in its mandate does not criminalize disbelief. It governs. A government that fears the word “illegitimate” doesn’t just fear speech; it fears the possibility that citizens might stop acting as if the ruling party’s authority is natural, inevitable, or deserved.
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Continuing Conflicts
Syria’s post-Assad consolidation has crossed a new threshold: government forces are pushing into the Kurdish-held northeast, territory that functioned as a parallel state for a decade, and the move is unifying the map while reopening the country’s most unresolved question: whether Damascus can absorb the Kurdish project without turning “reconciliation” into a slower, cleaner form of conquest. The symbolism is blunt. Government columns entering Hasakah for the first time in years, watched by drones and coalition aircraft, aren’t just a tactical redeployment, they’re an announcement that the era of Kurdish-administered autonomy is being folded into the new order. Kurds in Hasakah and Aleppo read it as the end of an ambition they paid for in blood: an autonomous region built through the S.D.F.’s war against ISIS and sustained by U.S. partnership. Arabs in Raqqa and Deir al Zour, many of whom felt policed and humiliated by the Kurdish-led administration, often read the same moment as liberation, people returning to villages emptied since 2013, reclaiming houses, and celebrating a return to “one Syria,” even if the state returning is battered and poor. The region the government is absorbing is resource-rich on paper, dams, oil fields, farmland, but degraded in practice. Power is intermittent enough that neighborhoods thrum with generators; bridges over the Euphrates are damaged; roads are cratered; municipal systems are collapsing into trash, darkness, and improvised repairs. The security problem is equally physical: mine-clearing, tunnel searches, booby traps, and the management of dead and detained fighters. Damascus is sending judges, security officers, and delegations to “process” the takeover—lines of former S.D.F. members registering at reconciliation centers, detainee files being reviewed at speed, because the state understands that paperwork can be a weapon too: it turns surrender into a bureaucratic corridor with one exit. It’s the contradiction at the heart of the new government’s messaging. Damascus is promising Kurds citizenship rights (long denied to many), cultural and educational protections, and some measure of local administration, while simultaneously insisting on a monopoly on force and integrating Kurdish fighters into the defense and interior ministries. That bargain may sound like state-building to the center. To Kurds who watched American support shift away from them, it reads like disarmament without trust: a demand to hand over the only leverage they believe kept them safe. The new president’s strategy is described as “muscle and negotiation,” but the order of those words will decide the outcome. If Damascus treats the northeast as a territory to be subdued first and integrated later, it will inherit an insurgency-shaped problem rather than a governance project. If it treats the S.D.F. as a rival institution to be dismantled rather than a constituency to be politically re-bought, it may get formal unity and informal resistance—fighters who say they don’t want war, but won’t rule out fighting again if called. What’s being built here is not just a unified Syria; it’s a unified chain of command. And that’s why the optimism coming from Damascus, “our capital is Damascus,” “a wonderful future,” “no part of Syria can remain out of control”, lands differently on the ground. For communities already exhausted by war, unity is appealing, but only if it comes with electricity, wages, courts that aren’t predatory, and security that isn’t a new name for fear. Right now, the state is asking for obedience before it proves capacity. That’s a fragile bargain in a region where the last decade taught people that whoever holds the checkpoint writes the truth.
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Europe
Over the past days, authorities reported a wave of bomb threats sent to schools and public institutions, messages framed, almost immediately, as “Ukrainian.” The threats produced no bombs, no detonations, no proof of origin. What they did produce was a narrative: the suggestion that danger is not only at Hungary’s borders, but inside its inboxes, its classrooms, its ordinary routines, and that the culprit wears a Ukrainian label. In a country where Viktor Orbán has built a durable governing system by turning external pressure into domestic loyalty, a security scare that can be stapled to Ukraine is political gold. Pro-government media circulated a long version of an alleged threat letter, thick with the kind of details that sound designed for panic, claims that search dogs would be useless, that evacuation was the only rational choice. Yet headteachers interviewed said the emails they received were in Hungarian, not Ukrainian, and one described the language as broken Hungarian, or deliberately made to look that way. If that account holds, then the incident doesn’t read like an imported terror plot. It reads like a staged accent. Counterintelligence specialists quoted in the reporting describe the episode as having the hallmarks of a false flag: an event meant to look foreign, meant to feel urgent, meant to spread faster than verification ever can. The absence of evidence connecting Ukraine is not a footnote, it is the basic condition of the story. The bomb threat becomes less a crime to solve than a prop to display, a piece of theatre that needn’t succeed materially so long as it succeeds psychologically. The timing makes the utility obvious. Orbán’s Fidesz is facing its sharpest contest in years, with Péter Magyar’s opposition movement leading in polls. Hungary’s political battlefield is no longer just Budapest punditry; it runs through provincial fatigue, collapsing trust, and anger over decisions that feel like they benefit outsiders, whether Brussels, Moscow, or investors whose projects arrive with environmental risks and local resentment. In that environment, a government that can’t credibly promise prosperity can still promise protection, and the easiest protection to sell is against a named enemy. Orbán’s campaign has already turned Ukraine into a domestic scapegoat: EU support is cast as a drain on Hungarian taxpayers, a prolongation of war, a threat to energy stability. Magyar is framed not as a rival with competing policies, but as a conduit, pro-Ukraine, pro-Brussels, unable to refuse demands from abroad. The bomb-scare narrative slots neatly into that architecture. The story doesn’t need to prove Ukrainian authorship; it only needs to keep Ukraine emotionally adjacent to danger long enough for the association to harden. It also fits the broader contradiction at the heart of Hungary’s foreign posture. Orbán has positioned himself as the EU’s internal spoiler on Russia policy, delaying or resisting sanctions, preserving Russian oil and gas flows, opposing military aid for Kyiv, casting Ukraine’s EU aspirations as a threat rather than a strategic necessity. In this framing, “peace” is less a policy than a branding exercise, and “sovereignty” becomes a justification for choosing dependency on Moscow over alignment with Europe. What is most striking in the reporting is not the brazenness of propaganda, but the institutional vacuum it exploits. When a security episode becomes campaign fuel within hours, when major outlets amplify insinuations without evidence, when basic facts, such as the language of the threats, fracture into competing versions, the state is no longer protecting public order. It is manipulating public perception. The classroom becomes a stage, the police response becomes background noise, and the public is asked to react first and verify never. The deeper risk isn’t that one scare spooks a few schools; it’s that this episode appears to be a rehearsal. Intelligence experts warn that as election day nears, more aggressive interference and staged provocations may follow, designed to portray the opposition as a national threat and to depict any Western criticism as foreign meddling. Hungary is being trained, again, to see politics as siege.
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Asia
After more than two weeks of near-total silence from Tajikistan’s presidency, Emomali Rahmon has reappeared in official imagery, calmly shaking hands with the head of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank on February 14, after a stretch in which the presidential site posted only brief text updates and no fresh visuals. The sudden “proof-of-life” moment follows an absence long enough to trigger the kind of speculation that authoritarian systems reliably invite when leaders vanish without explanation. The most consequential detail isn’t the photo itself, but the reporting around the gap. RFE/RL’s Tajik service said Rahmon traveled to China, reportedly to Hainan Island, for medical treatment for an undisclosed illness. If that account is accurate, it would be notable not because leaders seek private care (they do), but because the destination reportedly wasn’t Moscow or a Western clinic. In a region where elite medical trips have historically doubled as geopolitical signals, even a quiet detour to China reads like an incremental shift in whose institutions can now offer discretion, capacity, and prestige. None of this resolves the underlying uncertainty. Rahmon is 73, and rumors about his health have circulated for years; what changed in this episode was the communications pattern: a dated photo of a January 28 meeting, followed by a long lull, then a carefully framed reappearance. In systems that treat leadership as stability itself, withholding basic information can be as political as any announcement. It also keeps the succession question hovering, especially with his son, Rustam Emomali, widely discussed as the likely heir whenever the handover comes. For now, Rahmon’s resurfacing restores the public script, he is present, the state is functioning, but it doesn’t erase what the hiatus exposed: Tajikistan’s governance still runs on opacity, and the country’s external orientation can sometimes be glimpsed less through speeches than through where its ruler is rumored to go when something is wrong.
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Africa
Eastern Congo is sliding into mass hunger not because food has vanished, but because access to it has been turned into a weapon. A year after M23 seized Goma, the rebel administration is failing at the most basic function of governance, keeping markets moving and civilians fed, while the region’s supply lines, cash economy, and aid corridors are choked by coercion, roadblocks, and a trade regime that rewards allies and punishes everyone else. In Goma, scarcity shows up less as famine imagery than as the quiet violence of empty shelves and stalled routines. A nurse named Noella Amisi describes sprinting across the city the moment she receives a small mobile-money transfer, only to find supermarkets without stock and shops shuttered. Families sell down their lives in pieces, trading televisions and clothes for corn flour, measuring survival in bags and weeks. Even when food appears, prices spike fast enough to make the marketplace feel predatory: rice doubling in a matter of days, basics priced beyond what a disrupted city can realistically pay. The point is not simply that people are poor; it’s that the system around them is being engineered to keep them poor, mobile, and dependent. The article’s picture of M23 control is one of friction layered on friction. Farmers are pushed off land, fields become unreachable, and whatever produce is harvested dies at checkpoints. Traders describe imports stalled long enough to spoil, perishables impounded until the cold chain breaks, turning commerce into a gamble and punishing anyone who tries to restock beyond the rebels’ tolerance. The rebel economy, as described by local traders and activists, is not a functioning state but a series of gates: who can move, what can cross, and at what price. And then there is the geopolitical spine of it. The piece frames M23 not as an isolated militia, but as part of a broader structure in which Rwanda is positioned as both enabler and beneficiary—an arrangement that, in practice, shapes what food enters rebel-held territory and from where. Residents and traders claim dairy and beef are blocked unless they come via Rwanda, and that other imports require clearance that effectively hands leverage to outside patrons. Rwanda denies backing M23 and casts its posture as defensive, but the lived consequence in rebel-held towns is a market that feels monopolized: the wrong supply chain is treated like contraband, and civilians pay the premium for political alignment they didn’t choose. What makes the situation especially brittle is how multiple systems collapse at once. Banking suspension cuts the cash arteries; displacement empties farms; checkpoints sever trade; and insecurity keeps humanitarian workers from reaching the worst-hit areas. The closure of Goma’s airport is not just a logistical inconvenience, it’s a strategic amputation. For communities that relied on air access for relief supplies, shutting that route doesn’t simply slow aid; it changes the baseline of what “normal” hunger looks like and how fast it can become lethal. This is the part that reads like a warning rather than a report: hunger here is not an accidental byproduct of war. It is the predictable output of a governing model that treats territory as a revenue surface, civilians as a captive market, and food as leverage. The region has endured food insecurity for years, but the difference now is the administrative texture of deprivation, rules, permissions, seizures, “clearances,” impoundments, in reality, bureaucracy made violent. M23 may have taken cities, but it has not built a state. It has built a chokehold. /
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Middle East
Israeli sources quoted in the article claim the group has begun quietly pulling “civilian” weapons into its own custody, setting up checkpoints in areas it controls and collecting light firearms that many families keep for basic self-defense in a collapsed, heavily criminalized economy. If that’s accurate, it isn’t disarmament. It’s consolidation: moving the last accessible layer of weapons from private hands into an organizational reserve that can be reissued later, while claiming the street is “safer” and the process is “underway.” The key vulnerability here is that personal firearms in Gaza aren’t a marginal detail; they’re a substitute for functioning law and reliable protection. In a place where the state has imploded, people arm themselves against thieves, local militias, and opportunistic violence. That reality creates political cover for Hamas to argue that small arms are “necessary,” while simultaneously ensuring those weapons don’t remain independent. A population that keeps rifles is unpredictable; a movement that stockpiles them is not. Even if civilians don’t use weapons against Hamas, the mere fact of dispersed arms limits coercion. Centralizing those guns restores leverage. The phrase “self-defense” becomes a convenient label for what is effectively internal monopoly-building. A staged demilitarization that begins with headline weapons can be sold as progress while leaving the most portable, most governable instruments of violence intact. Assault rifles, machine guns, grenades, and improvised explosives are the backbone of control: checkpoints, intimidation, policing, recruitment, and quick re-mobilization. They are also the hardest to verify. A rocket launcher is visible; a warehouse of rifles is not. The article’s framing suggests Hamas wants the world to accept a distinction between “major weapons” and the rest, because the “rest” is precisely what survives a diplomatic agreement and seeds the next round. Israel’s emphasis on small arms, Netanyahu’s focus on AK-style rifles and claims about the scale of Hamas’s holdings, similarly fits that logic. If Israel’s position is that demilitarization includes rifles and not just heavier systems, Hamas’s “civilian stockpile” strategy becomes a direct challenge: a way to present compliance while preserving capability. And with smuggling constrained by border control, Gaza’s rearmament becomes less about big deliveries and more about what can be hidden, repurposed, or locally reproduced, tunnels for concealment, workshops for refurbishment, and, as the article notes, the harvesting of unexploded ordnance for explosives. The ceasefire environment, in that sense, is not a calm after violence. It’s an opportunity structure: time to reorganize, rewrite a public narrative, and embed the armed movement inside whatever “new” security architecture is being discussed.
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Americas
Mexico’s disappearance crisis is no longer a byproduct of cartel violence; it has become one of its central tools. A new analysis by México Evalúa finds that reported disappearances have risen by more than 200% over the past decade, pushing the national registry above 130,000 missing or disappeared people. The scale matters not just as a statistic, but as a governing reality: in wide stretches of the country, armed groups can remove someone in daylight and leave families to hunt for traces that the state either cannot, or will not, secure. Ángel Montenegro’s case shows how this works in practice. In August 2022, the 31-year-old construction worker was dragged into a van at a bus stop after a night out; his co-worker was released nearby, but Montenegro vanished. When his mother arrived, she found only a cap and one shoe. Three years later, she is still searching. That timeline is the point. Disappearances are designed to outlast the news cycle, to convert one act of violence into a permanent condition of uncertainty: no body, no closure, no prosecution pressure, no political cost. The report’s argument is blunt: disappearances track cartel territorial expansion and the diversification of criminal markets. Forced recruitment, the “clearing” of rivals, human trafficking, migrant smuggling, each generates a need to make people vanish without triggering the immediate alarms that homicides can set off. Bodies can be buried in clandestine graves, burned, or destroyed in ways that fragment evidence and delay identification. The violence doesn’t stop; it’s simply rendered harder to count, and therefore easier to deny. That denial has become part of the state’s response. Mexico created a National Search Commission and a public-facing platform intended to make the crisis legible. But it was underfunded and quickly became politically inconvenient. Ahead of the 2024 elections, the López Obrador administration launched an opaque “review” of the registry that slashed the official number of missing to a fraction of what families and independent groups recognized, prompting backlash from activists. President Claudia Sheinbaum has since criticized the platform as flawed and promised a new accounting, yet the core problem remains: credibility collapses when the government treats the registry as a political variable rather than a public record of harm. Meanwhile, the practical burden shifts downward. Mothers and family collectives do the work the state cannot sustain, searching fields with metal rods, triangulating last cellphone pings, uncovering bodies that the official system struggles to process. In Montenegro’s search area, Garcia’s group found multiple graves and more than a dozen bodies, none of them her son. Even when families locate remains, identification can take months or years, and prosecutions are rare in a system where impunity is the norm.
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