A new report by Mercy Corps warns that Kabul is on track to become the first modern city to entirely run out of water. Over the past decade, the Afghan capital’s aquifers have dropped by up to 30 metres, with extraction surpassing recharge rates by 44 million cubic metres annually. If current trends persist, the city’s aquifers could be dry by 2030, threatening the survival of its seven million residents. The situation is compounded by massive water contamination, 80% of groundwater is now unsafe due to sewage, salinity, and arsenic. Households are spending up to 30% of their income on increasingly scarce water, with prices doubling in recent weeks. Private firms have moved to exploit the crisis by selling extracted groundwater at inflated rates. Kabul’s population has surged sevenfold since 2001, overwhelming the city’s unregulated water system. International aid has failed to keep pace: just $8.4 million of a $264 million UN water and sanitation appeal has been funded this year. Meanwhile, $3 billion in global water aid remains frozen due to political reluctance to engage with Taliban authorities. The planned $170 million Panjshir River pipeline could alleviate some of the crisis, but progress is stalled awaiting budget commitments. Mercy Corps and Afghan water experts stress that without immediate investment, Kabul risks irreversible collapse, a failure that would drive mass displacement across the region. Kabul’s looming water catastrophe is a textbook case of global political dysfunction. International donors have withheld life-sustaining water aid out of reluctance to legitimise the Taliban, a stance that may soon create a humanitarian disaster dwarfing any diplomatic cost. The West’s credibility as a defender of human rights is further undermined when basic rights like water are allowed to vanish for millions. Unless the Panjshir pipeline and other sustainable solutions are urgently funded, Kabul’s collapse will accelerate migration and instability throughout Central Asia.

In his first video message since assuming leadership of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki issued new threats against U.S. President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and top American officials, while calling on lone-wolf jihadists to attack Arab leaders over the Israel-Hamas war. The video marks a bold effort by AQAP to reassert itself amid declining influence, and to compete with Yemen’s more visible Houthis in the propaganda war over Gaza. Al-Awlaki’s 30-minute message, disseminated online by AQAP supporters, accused the U.S. and its Arab allies of complicity in Gaza’s suffering and declared that "there are no red lines" for retaliation. Images of Trump, Musk, VP JD Vance, and other U.S. officials were shown alongside Tesla logos, signaling the group’s intent to personalize its messaging and appeal to radicalized Westerners. The video’s timing is telling. AQAP, long considered al-Qaida’s most dangerous franchise, has been weakened by infighting and U.S. drone strikes. Its former leader Khalid al-Batarfi was killed in 2024. With an estimated 3,000–4,000 members remaining, AQAP has increasingly turned to smuggling, bank robberies, and kidnappings to fund its operations. Al-Awlaki himself carries a $6 million U.S. bounty and has a history of inciting attacks against the West. But the Israel-Hamas war has shifted the narrative space in Yemen. The Iranian-backed Houthis, who have launched missiles at Israel and disrupted Red Sea shipping, now dominate the regional "resistance" image that AQAP once sought. Analysts suggest that al-Awlaki’s video is a direct bid to reclaim relevance by framing AQAP as a defender of Gaza. "Al-Awlaki seeks to challenge (Houthi) dominance by presenting himself as equally concerned about the situation in Gaza," noted Yemen expert Mohammed al-Basha. Though AQAP and the Shiite Zaydi Houthis are sworn ideological enemies, AQAP’s attacks on the Houthis have diminished in recent years as both groups pivot toward posturing against Israel and Western targets. This convergence of propaganda aims may further complicate security dynamics in the Red Sea corridor and Gulf. Al-Awlaki’s video underscores a broader pattern: Yemen’s various armed actors, whether Houthis, AQAP, or tribal factions, are weaponizing the Gaza war for their own agendas. For AQAP, the messaging signals both desperation and opportunism. As the Houthis gain global attention, AQAP is attempting to recast itself as a player in the pan-Islamic resistance narrative, even as its operational capacity remains in decline. The video also highlights an enduring risk for the West: that AQAP retains both a hard core of fighters and a persistent online reach. Calls for lone-wolf attacks in the U.S. and Gulf Arab states may resonate with extremist sympathizers, even if AQAP itself lacks the ability to conduct complex external plots at present. For Western intelligence services increasingly diverted from Yemen, this serves as a reminder that AQAP, while battered, is not irrelevant. Its ideological brand remains potent, its leadership is adapting to new propaganda environments, and its declared intent toward U.S. and allied targets is undiminished.

A new report in China Brief offers a damning portrait of how Hongmen associations, once Qing-era secret societies, now serve as a hybrid tool of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) influence and organized crime across One Belt One Road (OBOR) countries. While Hongmen organizations trade heavily on patriotic messaging and cultural nostalgia, their deep ties to triad groups and CCP united front operations reveal a murkier reality. The blurred line between "cultural association" and criminal enterprise risks further tarnishing China’s global standing, particularly in fragile states where the Hongmen brand has become a vehicle for both influence and illicit activity. Hongmen’s historical mythology and rituals make them virtually indistinguishable from triad groups. The report highlights how former 14K triad leader Wan Kuok-koi, also known as "Broken Tooth Koi" has openly leveraged Hongmen’s image to front ventures in Cambodia, Myanmar, and beyond. These range from unregulated private security companies to liquor brands, cryptocurrencies, and involvement in crime hubs like Myanmar’s notorious Saixigang zone. Beijing has implicitly tolerated this evolution. Hongmen associations are deeply embedded in CCP united front structures via the Zhi Gong Party and through explicit participation in campaigns to promote PRC-Taiwan unification. Events like the 2023 "Taiwan All Circles Conference" illustrate how Hongmen networks are used to broadcast regime-aligned narratives to overseas Chinese communities, especially in regions where China aims to expand influence. Wan’s activities provide a case study in how criminal elements cloak themselves in CCP-sanctioned patriotism. Despite his triad history and U.S. Magnitsky sanctions, Wan leads Hongmen-linked associations that maintain an active online presence, operate business fronts, and spread pro-PRC messaging across Africa and Southeast Asia. Videos of armed guards representing the World Hongmen History and Culture Association in Uganda and Hongmen-branded beer produced in Cambodia show how far this model has spread. The CCP benefits from this relationship in two ways: Plausible deniability: it can distance itself from triad figures while using them to advance its soft power and surveillance objectives. Local muscle: In fragile OBOR partner states, Hongmen-affiliated groups provide on-the-ground networks capable of intimidation, smuggling, and even armed enforcement. Yet this alliance carries clear risks. Hongmen’s expansion under the CCP’s tacit blessing exposes China to reputational blowback. As the U.S. sanctions demonstrate, the intersection of CCP-aligned influence operations with transnational crime networks undermines Beijing’s narrative of building a "responsible" global order. Moreover, it raises the prospect that China’s overseas influence machine increasingly depends on actors outside legal norms, exposing OBOR regions to deeper criminal infiltration. The Hongmen case shows that the CCP’s United Front Work Department (UFWD) is prepared to work with criminal proxies when it serves its geopolitical aims. In a global environment where China is seeking to project leadership, such associations may ultimately be counterproductive, fueling perceptions that OBOR and Chinese soft power are inseparable from corrupt, criminal actors. As OBOR expands into fragile states, Hongmen-affiliated triad activity may deepen governance problems in partner countries, risking backlash and alienating potential allies. Western governments should monitor Hongmen-linked operations as part of broader countermeasures against United Front influence and PRC hybrid operations, especially where these intersect with human trafficking, organized crime, and elite corruption.

Liberian authorities have charged former parliamentary speaker Jonathan Fonati Koffa with arson over a December 2024 fire that destroyed the nation’s House of Representatives chambers. The indictment follows months of political turbulence and factional infighting that has paralyzed Liberia’s legislature. The blaze erupted one day after mass protests opposing Koffa’s planned removal from office. He had faced impeachment proceedings since October over accusations of poor governance, corruption, and conflicts of interest. Though he denied involvement, police now claim "credible links" tie Koffa to the fire, accusing him of coordinating sabotage efforts from November 2023. Five other lawmakers are also detained in the case. An independent U.S. team confirmed that the fire was deliberate. Video evidence includes a Facebook post by Representative Frank Saah Foko stating: “If they want us to burn the chambers, we will burn it.” Foko has also been detained. Liberia’s legislature has been locked in a constitutional crisis since the failed impeachment attempt, which fell short of the required two-thirds majority. Pro-Koffa and opposition factions had since appointed rival speakers, bringing legislative business to a standstill. Though Koffa resigned last month, tensions remain high, with arrests deepening the political divide. Liberia’s parliament fire represents a stark breakdown of democratic governance in a fragile post-conflict state. What began as an internal power struggle has now crossed into outright criminality, with sitting lawmakers accused of destroying national institutions. The brazenness of the attack, and public statements hinting at intent, underscores the alarming normalization of political violence in Monrovia. International actors, notably ECOWAS and the U.S., which assisted in the investigation, must now push for accountability and institutional reform lest Liberia slide further into a state of lawlessness masquerading as democracy.